Today, the state of the art of technology forecasting is being pushed to the limits. For projects with a time duration of less than one year, we normally assume that the environment is known and stable, particularly the technological environment. For projects over a year or so in length, technology forecasting must be considered. Computer technology doubles in performance about every two years. Engineering technology is said to double every three or so years. How can a project manager accurately define and plan the scope of a three- or four-year project without expecting engineering changes resulting from technology improvements? What are the risks?

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