A toy company has done a time series analysis of their sales. They have come up with the following equation:

Yt = 15 Xt + 56

Where Xt = time period

X1 (First quarter of 1st year) =1.5

X2 (Second quarter of 1st year) =3

X3 (Third quarter of 1st year) = 4.5

Marketing manager told management that the third quarter of every year needs seasonal adjustment. He/She indicated adjustment factor of .8 or 80%. It has also been realized that the forecast for every second year differs by 120% due to cyclical effect. What would be the adjusted forecast for the third quarter of the fourth year?

A) 361 – 380

B) 401– 420

C) None of answer are correct

D) 381 – 400

E) 421 & Over

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